Most arguments about AI acceleration present one position properly and the other as a caricature. That makes the argument louder without making the forecast better.
The useful approach is to build the strongest version of each case, identify the observations both sides accept, and find the evidence that would move probability from one side to the other. The result is not a verdict. It is a map of the disagreement.
Inside this guide
- Start by naming what might be accelerating
- The strongest case that acceleration continues
- The strongest case that progress is closer to a plateau
- What both sides can accept
- The observations that would move the argument
- How to hold a position without joining a camp
- Source trail
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